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OMB COST ESTIMATE FOR PAY-AS-YOU-GO CALCULATIONS

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Office of Management and Budget

Report No: 519
Date: 11/16/2000

OMB COST ESTIMATE
FOR PAY-AS-YOU-GO CALCULATIONS

  1. LAW NUMBER: P.L.106-313 (S. 2045)

  2. BILL TITLE: American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act

  3. BILL PURPOSE: (1) Temporarily raises the annual cap on H-1B visas; (2) changes the allocation of H-1B visa fee revenue among various Federal programs; and (3) modifies current programs that train and educate U.S. workers and students.

  4. OMB ESTIMATE: P.L. 106-313 raises the limit on H-1B visas available in 1999 through 2003 to 195,000. After 2003, the limit will revert to 65,000. The retroactive change for 1999 and 2000 has the practical effect of making approximately 45,000 additional H-1B visas available for 2001. OMB estimates that additional fee income of $561 million will be collected over 2001 through 2005 as the result of the increased number of visas. This fee income is available to be spent without further action. Because the spending lags the collection of fees, there are net savings in 2001 through 2003 and net costs in later years.
    5. (Fiscal years; in millions of dollars)
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
    Net costs............... 0 -113 -66 -36 128 65

  5. CBO ESTIMATE:
    6. (Fiscal years; in millions of dollars)
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
    Net costs............... 0 -126 -77 -57 145 78

  6. EXPLANATION OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OMB AND CBO ESTIMATES:

    7. There are minor differences between OMB and CBO estimates of increased fee income and the rate at which program spending will occur.

  7. CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF DIRECT SPENDING AND REVENUE LEGISLATION ENACTED TO DATE:
    8. (Fiscal years; in millions of dollars)
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
    Outlay effect.............. 34 353 1,139 1,253 1,751 1,678
    Receipt effect............ -8 -620 -698 -746 -781 -768
    Net costs.................... 42 973 1,837 1,999 2,532 2,446

    NOTE: The cumulative effect of direct spending and revenue legislation enacted to date is currently estimated to result in an end-of-session sequester. The Administration looks forward to working with the Congress to ensure that an unintended sequester does not occur.

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