Table 7: Summary of Agency Estimates for Final Rules 4/1/96 - 3/31/97
(As of the date of completion of OMB review)
|
| Agency/ Rule |
Benefits |
Costs |
Other Information |
|
| Department of Agriculture |
|
| 1996 Farm Bill Farm Program |
Not
Estimated |
Not
Estimated |
"Net farm income (including crop and livestock sectors) during the 1996-2002
calendar years is expected to be about $15 billion higher under the 1996 Act than under the FY
1997 President's Budget baseline. This largely reflects higher Government payments to farmers
under the 1996 Act as production flexibility contract payments exceed projected deficiency
payments. Additionally, changes in the timing of payments to farmers provide an additional
boost to farm income in the first year of the program--pushing 1996 net income up about $4
billion. However, net farm income is up by less than the increase in Government payments due to
changes in the dairy and peanut programs. Crop sector receipts are down slightly under the 1996
Act due to lower plantings and production of the eight major commodities. Livestock sector
receipts are lower due primarily to lower dairy sector receipts. Cash production expenses are up
slightly due to increases in net cash rents, which offset lower crop production expenses from
lower plantings.
"Farmland values are higher under the 1996 Act compared with the FY 1997 President's Budget,
reflecting the capitalized value of higher income. Land values average about 3 percent higher
under the 1996 Act compared with FY 1997 President's Budget estimates.
"Consumer costs are expected to be only slightly lower under the 1996 Act. Because grain prices,
on average, are expected to be essentially unaffected, no appreciable change in grain-based food
product costs, such as cereal and meat products, is expected." 61 FR 37544-5.
"Alternatively, the 1996 Act can be compared to a no program'' baseline. Under the 1996 Act,
contract commodity payments represent a large portion of the benefits received by producers and
there are few planting restrictions. The major differences between a no-program scenario (if the
CRP and export programs were continued) and the 1996 Act are that producers would no longer
receive contract commodity payments of about $35.9 billion and would no longer be subject to
farm conservation and wetland protection requirements. The loss in farm income would likely
entail substantial short-term adjustments and financial stress. However, over the longer term, a
no-program scenario is expected to have little or no impact on supply, demand, and prices
compared with the 1996 Act for most commodities except for peanuts, sugar, and, in the initial
years of the period, dairy.
"Plantings would be expected to decrease marginally with little or no change in market prices.
Farm income would likely be lower, but lost revenue from eliminating contract commodity
payments would be partially offset by lower cash rents. Land values would be lower if there were
no program. In the aggregate, compared with a no-program scenario, impacts of the 1996 Act on
the livestock industry, input industry, consumers, and the general economy would be minimal in
the long run. However, impacts in some sectors, such as those dependent on the peanut program
and sugar program, may be more significant.." 61 FR 37545-46. |
|
| Conservation Reserve Program |
$2 billion/yr,
1997- 2002 |
$900 million/yr,
1997 - 2002 |
Other miscellaneous (unquantified) benefits: swimming, boating, wetland
conservation, human health impacts, and reduced nutrients in habitats; $5.8 billion/yr in transfers
from consumers and taxpayers to farmers. |
|
| Karnal Bunt |
Not
Estimated |
Not
Estimated |
"This rule is being published on an emergency basis in order to give affected
growers the opportunity to make planting decisions for the 1996-97 crop season on a timely
basis...This rule may have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small
entities. If we determine this is so, then we will discuss the issues raised by section 604 of the
Regulatory Flexibility Act in our Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis, which we will publish in
a future Federal Register." 61 FR 52206. |
|
| Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points |
$0.71-$26.59 billion present value discounted over 20 years |
$0.97-1.16 billion present value discounted over 20 years |
"The benefits are based on reducing the risk of foodborne illness due to
Campylobacter jejuni/coli, Escherichia coli 0157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella. ...
these four pathogens are the cause of 1.4 to 4.2 million cases of foodborne illness per year. FSIS
has estimated that 90 percent of these cases are caused by contamination occurring at the
manufacturing stage that can be addressed by improved process control. This addressable
foodborne illness costs society from $0.99 to $3.69 billion, annually. The high and low range
occurs because of the current uncertainty in the estimates of the number of cases of foodborne
illness and death attributable to the four pathogens. Being without the knowledge to predict the
effectiveness of the requirements in the rule to reduce foodborne illness, the Department has
calculated projected health benefits for a range of effectiveness levels, where effectiveness refers
to the percentage of pathogens eliminated at the manufacturing stage..." 61 FR 38956.
"The link between regulatory effectiveness and health benefits is the assumption that a reduction
in pathogens leads to a proportional reduction in foodborne illness. FSIS has presented the
proportional reduction calculation as a mathematical expression that facilitates the calculation
of a quantified benefit estimate for the purposes of this final RIA. FSIS has not viewed
proportional reduction as a risk model that would have important underlying assumptions that
merit discussion or explanation. For a mathematical expression to be a risk model, it must have
some basis or credence in the scientific community. That is not the case here. FSIS has
acknowledged that very little is known about the relationship between pathogen levels at the
manufacturing stage and dose, i.e., the level of pathogens consumed." 61 FR
38945-6. |
|
| Department of Commerce |
|
| Encryption Items Transferred from the U.S. Munitions List to the Commerce
Control List |
Not
Estimated |
$834,000 (govt admin cost FY97), $591,850 (paperwork burden costs) |
Unquantified benefits in terms of improved national security, law enforcement and
public safety benefits, and economic benefits for industry: "This initiative will support the
growth of electronic commerce; increase the security of the global information infrastructure;
protect privacy, intellectual property and other valuable information; and sustain the economic
competitiveness of U.S. encryption product manufacturers during the transition to a key
management infrastructure. 61 FR 68573. |
|
| Department of Health and Human
Services |
|
| Food Labeling/ Nutrition Labeling:Small Business Exemption |
$275-360 million/yr |
$4 million in first year, expected to decline thereafter |
None reported. |
|
| Restriction on the Sale and Distribution of Cigarettes and Smokeless
Tobacco |
$9.2-10.4 billion/yr at 7% discount rate; $28.1-43.2 billion/yr at 3% discount
rate |
$180 million/yr at 7% discount rate |
Unspecified costs of mandatory consumer education program.
"These totals do not include the benefits expected from fewer fires (over $160 million annually),
reduced passive smoking, or infant death and morbidity associated with mothers'
smoking...."
"In addition, while FDA could not quantify the benefits that will result from the projected decline
in the use of smokeless tobacco, they would be considerable." 61 FR 44396ff. |
|
| Medical Devices: Quality Systems Regulation |
$29 million/yr; 44 deaths avoided/yr;484 to 677 serious injuries avoided/yr |
$82 million/yr |
"The medical device industry would gain substantial economic benefits from the
proposed changes to the [Comprehensive Good Manufacturing Practices, "CGMP"] regulation in
three ways: Cost savings from fewer recalls, productivity gains from improved designs, and
efficiency gains for export-oriented manufacturers who would now need to comply with only
one set of quality standards.
"These estimates of the public health benefits from fewer design-related deaths and serious
injuries represent FDA's best projections, given the limitations and uncertainties of the data and
assumptions. The above numbers, however, do not capture the quality of life losses to patients
who experience less severe injuries than those reported in [medical device recalls, "MDR's"],
who experience anxiety as a result of treatment with an unreliable medical device, or who
experience inconvenience and additional medical costs because of device failure.
"Medical device malfunctions are substantially more numerous than deaths or injuries from
device failures and also represent a cost to society. Malfunctions represent a loss of product and
an inconvenience to users and/or patients. Additionally, medical device malfunctions burden
medical personnel with additional tasks, such as repeating treatments, replacing devices,
returning and seeking reimbursement for failed devices, and providing reports on the
circumstances of medical device failures. No attempt was made to quantify these additional
costs." 61 FR 52602ff. |
|
| Department of the Interior |
|
| Migratory Bird Hunting (Early Season Frameworks) |
Not
Estimated |
Not
Estimated |
Reports that duck hunters spend an estimated $416 million/yr; unquantified
economic stimulus benefits derived from spending on duck hunting; unquantified benefit of
value to hunters (consumer surplus) from more than 11 million hunting days per year;
unquantified benefit to bird population by reducing overcrowding and ensuring continued use of
resource in future. |
|
| Migratory Bird Hunting (Late Season Frameworks) |
Not
Estimated |
Not
Estimated |
Reports that duck hunters spend an estimated $416 million/yr; unquantified
economic stimulus benefits derived from spending on duck hunting; unquantified benefit of
value to hunters (consumer surplus) from more than 11 million hunting days per year;
unquantified benefit to bird population by reducing overcrowding and ensuring continued use of
resource in future. |
|
| Department of Labor |
|
| Exposure to Methylene Chloride (MC) |
31 cancer cases/yr avoided; 3 deaths/yr avoided from acute central nervous system
effects and carboxyhemo- globinemia |
$101 million/yr |
"MC exposures above the level at which the final rule's STEL is set--125 ppm--are
also associated with acute central nervous system effects, such as dizziness, staggered gait, and
diminished alertness, all effects that can lead to workplace accidents. OSHA estimates that as
many as 30,000 to 54,000 workers will be protected by the final rule's STEL from experiencing
CNS effects and episodes of carboxyhemoglobinemia every year. Moreover, exposure to the
liquid or vapor forms of MC can lead to eye, skin, and mucous membrane irritation, and these
material impairments will also be averted by compliance with the final rule. Finally, contact of
the skin with MC can lead to percutaneous absorption and systemic toxicity and thus lead to
additional cases of cancer that have not been taken into account in the benefits assessment. " 62
FR 1567-68. |
|
| Department of Transportation |
|
| Airbag Depowering |
83-101 fewer fatalities, 5,100 - 8,800 fewer serious injuries over lifetime of one full
model-year's vehicles |
$0 |
50 - 431 more fatalities and 171 - 553 more serious/severe chest injuries over
lifetime of one full model-year's vehicles; substantial unquantified reduction in minor/moderate
injuries. |
|
| Light Truck CAFE Model-Year 1999 |
Not
Estimated |
Not
Estimated |
None reported. |
|
| Roadway Worker Protection |
$240 million present value discounted over 10 years |
$229 million present value discounted over 10 years |
Possible increased capacity of rail lines and improved morale. |
|
| Environmental Protection
Agency |
|
| Accidental Release Prevention |
$174 million/yr |
$97 million/yr |
Unspecified value of information made available through disclosure/reporting
requirements; efficiency gains, increased technology transfer, indirect cost savings, and increased
goodwill; possible damage reductions attributable to offsite consequence analysis and to a
reduction in routine emissions. |
|
| Financial Assurance for Municipal Solid Waste Landfills |
$105 million/yr |
$0 |
None reported. |
|
| Deposit Control Gasoline |
Avg Emission Reductions per Year, 1997-2001:
25,000 t
HC,
474,000 t CO,
95,000 t Nox |
Avg Cost/Yr, 1997 - 2000:
$138 million/yr |
Fuel economy benefits are also expected as a result of the detergent program,
amounting to nearly 450 million gallons during the 1995-2001 period. The savings associated
with this fuel economy benefit are expected to partially offset the costs of the program. This rule
should result in increased sales and business opportunities within the fuel additive industry. EPA
anticipates that this program may result in significant vehicle maintenance benefits. However,
due to uncertainties in their magnitude, and for other reasons, they were not considered
quantitatively in the analysis. |
|
| Acid Rain Phase II Nitrogen Oxides Emission Controls |
Emission Reductions per Year:
890,000 t Nox |
$204 million/yr |
None reported. |
|
| Federal Test Procedure Revisions |
Emission Reductions:
In 2005:
30,994 t NMHC,
1,937,114 t CO,
164,112 t NOx
In 2010:
54,892 t NMHC,
3,430,769 t CO,
290,655 t NOx
In 2015:
72,025 t NMHC,
4,501,555 t CO,
381,372 t NOx
In 2020:
81,977 t NMHC,
5,123,565 t CO,
434,068 t Nox |
$199-245 million/yr |
Analysis does not include potential fuel savings of $13.45 discounted over the
lifetime of the average vehicle, or about $202 million/yr. |
|
| Voluntary Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles |
Emission Reductions (tons/ozone season- weekday):
In 2005:
279 t NMOG,
3,756 t CO,
400 t NOx
In 2007:
399 t NMOG,
5,302 t CO,
600 t NOx
In 2015:
778 t NMOG,
9,723 t CO,
1,249 t Nox |
$600 million/yr |
None reported. |
|
| Lead-Based Paint Activities in Target Housing |
Not
Estimated |
$1.114 billion present value over 50 years discounted at 3% |
Will provide consumers with greater assurance that they will be able to purchase
abatement services of reliable quality. |
|
| Abbreviations: CO = carbon monoxide, HC =
hydrocarbons, Kt = kilotons, NMHC = non-methane hydrocarbons, NMOG= non-methane
organic gases, NOx = nitrogen oxides, t = tons. |
|