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OMB COST ESTIMATE
FOR PAY-AS-YOU-GO CALCULATIONS

Report No: 501
Date: 01/03/00

  1. LAW NUMBER: P.L.106-170 (H.R.1180)
  2. BILL TITLE: Ticket to Work and Work Incentives Improvement Act
  3. BILL PURPOSE: (1) Amends the current vocational rehabilitation and referral system byestablishing Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency Program within the Social SecurityAdministration; (2) expands eligibility for medicaid and medicare benefits for certainindividuals with disabilities who work; and (3) extends various tax provisions scheduledto expire by January 1, 2000.
  4. OMB ESTIMATE:
  5. (Fiscal years; in millions of dollars)
    199920002001200220032004
    Tax extensions................ 0 2,300 6,537 5,717 3,237 2,791
    Other revenues................0-2,394-1,671 1,874-300-209
    Outlays............................0148-41-446
    Total................................0- 804,8747,5502,9332,628
    Memorandum:
    Off-budget impact...........0-21-46-41-32-29

    P.L. 106-170 extends a number of tax provisions that were due to expire by January 1,2000. OMB estimates that the extension of these provisions reduces revenue by $2.3billion in 2000 and $20.6 billion over the years 1999 through 2004. In 2000, this revenueloss is offset by increasing the estimated "safe harbor" tax payments for individuals withadjusted gross income of over $150,000 and other revenue changes. P.L. 106-170 alsoimproves work incentives for individuals with disabilities, such as establishing a ticket towork and self-sufficiency program and expanding health benefits for certain individuals.On net, OMB estimates that the Act increases on-budget outlays by $23 million over thepay-as-you-go window. The Act also yields net savings in off-budget accounts, whichare not scored for pay-as-you-go purposes.

  6. CBO ESTIMATE:
  7. (Fiscal years; in millions of dollars)
    199920002001200220032004
    Tax extensions................. 01,9834,4996,3632,8202,385
    Other revenues................0-2,099-1,6531,742-429-222
    Outlays............................01852-161346
    Total................................0-972,8998,0892,4042,210
    Memorandum:
    Off-budget impact...........0 32 76 12-24-25

  8. EXPLANATION OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OMB AND CBO ESTIMATES:
  9. Over the period 1999 through 2004, CBO estimates net pay-as-you-go costs of $15.5billion for P.L. 106-170; while OMB estimates $17.9 billion. Most of this difference isthe result of different scoring of tax extension provisions, primarily for extensions of theresearch and experimentation tax credit and Subpart F for active financing income. Thesedifferences are the result of different baselines and estimating models.

  10. CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF DIRECT SPENDING AND REVENUE LEGISLATIONENACTED TO DATE:
  11. (Fiscal years; in millions of dollars)
    199920002001200220032004
    Outlay effect..............53681968562810 17
    Receipt effect............-53,753-3,087-6,822-952-2,545
    Net costs....................58-3,0724,0557,3841,7622,562


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