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THE COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM
A White Paper
Prepared for the
White House Forum on the Role of Science and Technology
in Promoting
National Security and Global Stability
March 29 - 30, 1995
National Academy of Science
Statement of the Problem
In the fall of 1991, conditions in the disintegrating Soviet
Union posed a clear threat to
nuclear safety and stability globally. An estimated 30,000
nuclear weapons were spread among
the former Soviet republics. About 3,200 strategic nuclear
warheads were located outside of
Russia on the territories of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Political, social, and economic
upheaval heightened the prospects that the former Soviet
republics would not be able to provide
for safe and secure storage or disposition of these nuclear
weapons or other weapons of mass
destruction. These conditions also caused concerns that former
Soviet nuclear weapons scientists
and engineers would export their expertise or services to rogue
countries and groups.
The dangers posed by this situation in the new independent
states (NIS) were becoming
increasingly clear: new nuclear nations could spring
fully-formed from the collapse of the
former Soviet Union; weapons might be diverted or used in an
unauthorized manner; warheads
and fissile materials might be sold to countries or groups with
goals that are inimical to the
United States; and Soviet weapons scientists and engineers might
contribute to global
proliferation. Although significant positive changes were
occurring in the NIS and many of the
threats that confronted the United States throughout the Cold War
were disappearing, these
weapons and materials continued to pose serious risks to U.S.
national security. In addition,
the NIS lacked the legal or political commitments to the
principles of nonproliferation and their
status under the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was unclear.
In the three-and-a-half years since the watershed events
surrounding the first Nunn-Lugar
legislation occurred, many of these conditions have not
significantly changed, although today,
Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan have all joined the NPT. In the
face of these conditions, the
ability of the NIS to fully comply with, and possibly accelerate
their arms reduction and arms
elimination commitments, without assistance, is questionable.
The problems of national security
concern to the United States are not only those that have a
direct role in arms reduction and
arms elimination, such as shortage of equipment to cut up
missiles, bombers, and submarines
in compliance with the START treaties. The U.S. is also
concerned about the problems that
result from the vast former Soviet weapons production complex and
support infrastructure. The
necessity for housing demobilized Strategic Rocket Forces
officers is a case in point.
Under the laws of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, the
demobilization of military officers
may be undertaken only if adequate housing is provided for them.
These countries are
experiencing severe housing shortages, however, as the result of
large-scale military
demobilizations and poor overall economic performance. The lack
of housing for missile
officers scheduled for demobilization may prevent or delay these
countries from meeting their
strategic nuclear arms elimination obligations on an accelerated
basis. The United States wants
to help these countries meet the accelerated schedules to reduce
the threat from weapons that
could be aimed at the United States. The officer housing
shortage may also create a corps of
disgruntled missile officers--nuclear weapons specialists who are
potential proliferators--who
stretch out dismantlement in order to remain in military base
housing.
The bottom line is that conditions in the NIS weapons
support infrastructure reach right
to the heart of threat reduction. These conditions require a
response that removes the threat
missile by missile, warhead by warhead, person by person, and
factory by factory. The U.S.
response does just that.
U.S. Government Response
Congress responded to these conditions and associated
threats by initiating the
Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program in November 1991.
Often referred to as the
Nunn-Lugar program, after the Senators who spearheaded the
effort, this congressional initiative
provided the Department of Defense (DoD) authority and funding to
assist the eligible states of
the former Soviet Union in weapons dismantlement and destruction,
strengthening the security
of nuclear warheads and fissile materials in connection with
warhead dismantlement, and
demilitarization of the NIS infrastructure.
The U.S. objectives in the CTR program as established by
Congress are to cooperate
with the NIS to:
- destroy nuclear, chemical, and other weapons of mass
destruction;
- transport, store, disable, and safeguard weapons in
connection with their
destruction;
- establish verifiable safeguards against proliferation of such
weapons;
- prevent diversion of weapons-related expertise;
- facilitate demilitarization of defense industries and
conversion of military
capabilities and technologies; and
- expand defense and military contacts between the United
States and the NIS.
- These objectives are inextricably linked with each other, as
are the corresponding CTR program
activities. Meeting the objective of safeguarding nuclear
weapons in Russia, for example, will
also help prevent proliferation, a growing concern in light of
recent reports of nuclear
smuggling.
Through the CTR program, the Department of Defense provides
equipment, services, and
technical advice to Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to
assist them in eliminating (or,
as in the case of Russia, reducing) the weapons of mass
destruction remaining from the Soviet
era, preventing proliferation, and dismantling the associated
infrastructure or transforming
portions of it into peaceful civilian assets. In each of fiscal
years 1992 and 1993, Congress
gave DoD authority to transfer $400 million from existing DoD
accounts to support the
Nunn-Lugar program. Subsequent legislation (FY 1994 and 1995)
provided for direct
appropriations of $400 million each year.
The CTR program is helping to ensure that nuclear and other
weapons of mass
destruction are adequately controlled and safeguarded and to
prevent proliferation of these
weapons and expertise. CTR assistance is facilitating the former
Soviet states in meeting and
even accelerating their START treaty obligations. In addition,
CTR is assisting the Russians in
preparing to implement the Chemical Weapons Convention. To date,
CTR has helped to
mitigate the threats, as noted above, by contributing to the
removal of over 2,500 warheads from
missile and bomber bases into secure central storage in Russia;
the return to Russia of over
1,000 warheads that were located in Belarus, Ukraine, and
Kazakhstan; the deactivation of four
regiments of SS-19 ICBMs in Ukraine; the removal of 750 missiles
from their launchers and
elimination of approximately 575 launchers and bombers throughout
the former Soviet Union;
and the current or projected re-employment of over 5,000 Russian
weapon scientists and
engineers on peaceful, civilian research projects. The Project
Sapphire mission in November
1994 to remove 600 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to the
United States from poorly
secured storage in Kazakhstan was partially funded through CTR.
CTR is not traditional foreign aid. Rather, by directly
addressing the dangers in the
former Soviet Union concerning weapons of mass destruction, it is
defense by other means.
Congress had the vision to create this unique program, and DoD
will maintain the momentum
gained over the past few years to see it through to its
conclusion.
Programs and Dollars in Place to Deal with the
Problem
The CTR program provides the services, tools, and technology
required to facilitate and
accelerate elimination or reduction of weapons of mass
destruction and to modernize and expand
existing proliferation safeguards within the NIS. The program
currently consists of 36 separate
projects, most under bilateral implementing agreements or
memoranda of understanding between
the United States and the recipient governments. CTR program
activities generally fall into
three categories in accordance with the objectives established by
Congress.
First, Destruction and Dismantlement activities facilitate
the dismantlement and
elimination of weapons of mass destruction and their launchers in
the four eligible states where
they remain (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine) by
providing leverage to encourage
these countries to dismantle and by providing the actual
equipment, services, and training
required to implement dismantlement decisions. Projects in this
area provide assistance in
dismantlement or destruction of strategic nuclear missiles, silo
launchers, liquid and solid rocket
propellants, and Russian chemical weapons. Also included is
assistance in the destruction of the
launcher tubes in ballistic missile-firing submarines, the
elimination of heavy bombers, and the
elimination or conversion of the infrastructure (hardware and
personnel) that supports these
systems.
Second, through Chain of Custody activities, the CTR program
decreases the dangers
from the nuclear weapons and fissile materials which remain in
the NIS, particularly Russia, and
which represent a potential threat to the United States. During
the difficult and uncertain period
of transition in these states, the continued security and custody
of nuclear weapons and materials
is vitally important to both the United States and the NIS.
Projects provide assistance, therefore,
in enhancing effective controls over nuclear weapons and the
vfissile materials removed from
them throughout the drawdown and dismantlement of these weapons.
Projects include providing
safe and secure transportation of nuclear weapons from
operational sites and storage areas to
dismantlement facilities; improved security and accountability
for weapons in transit; safer and
more secure storage and transport of fissile material removed
from nuclear weapons through the
provision of storage containers; and design, equipping, and
possible assistance in construction
of centralized fissile material storage facilities.
Finally, CTR supports Demilitarization efforts which
decrease the long-term threat by
reducing the capacity and economic pressures in the NIS to
continue to produce weapons of mass
destruction. The industrial partnership projects under CTR help
to reduce the potential of a
future nuclear threat at its source, by addressing weapons
production capabilities. These projects
also help prevent proliferation at its source by reducing the
supply of weapons of mass
destruction and weapons expertise available for foreign sale or
diversion and the incentives for
relying on such sales for income. The defense conversion
investments under CTR are
win-win-win: They help reduce the threats from weapons of mass
destruction; they help the NIS
build peaceful, commercially viable market economies while
reducing excess military capacity;
and they provide opportunities for U.S. industry's entry into
potentially large markets for
civilian goods and services. Science and technology centers,
through which former Soviet
nuclear scientists and engineers are being reemployed in
peaceful, civilian endeavors, also
address the possible long-term threat, as do projects which
enhance defense and military contacts
between the United States and the NIS. When the Soviet Union
dissolved the successor states
were left with forces, structures, and equipment that were not
well suited to the post-Soviet,
post-Cold War world. Through the defense and military contacts
projects the United States is
able to assist in the development of democratic and civilian
control of military departments and
the restructuring and downsizing of defense capabilities to
better reflect these new independent
states' current needs.
Science and technology are at the heart of many of the CTR
program activities. One
direct connection is the science and technology centers in
Moscow, Kiev, and Almaty. These
centers provide funding and information in redirecting weapons
scientists to commercial
research. Defense conversion serves a similar goal, helping
weapons manufacturers transfer
their technological strengths into civilian products, with the
assistance of U.S. companies.
Providing environmentally sound destruction methods has proven
helpful in ensuring continued
compliance with arms control treaties. Technology has provided
solutions to some important
bottlenecks in the dismantlement process. For example, U.S.
expertise has reviewed and guided
the design of the plutonium storage facility in Russia, and is
helping build a pilot plant for
chemical weapon destruction. U.S. experts will also review
Ukrainian proposals for safe
disposition of liquid rocket fuel removed from SS-19s based in
Ukraine. Developing solutions
to these problems will allow dismantlement efforts to continue
more quickly.
Since Fiscal Year (FY) 1992, Congress has authorized a total
of $1.6 billion in DoD
transfer authority or appropriations for Nunn-Lugar assistance to
the NIS. Although $330
million of the authority has expired, the United States has
proposed to obligate $1.181 billion
of the $1.27 billion in existing authority. By the end of FY
1994, the obligation rate had
increased four-fold over what it had been at the end of FY 1993,
and obligations at the end of
the current fiscal year are expected to be at least
six-and-a-half times what they were at the end
of FY 1993.
In spite of the progress made by the CTR program in all
areas of threat reduction, a great
deal of work still needs to be done. The major priorities for
the current fiscal year and to the
planned end of the program--the end of FY 2001--fall into the
Destruction and Dismantlement
and the Chain of Custody areas. Planning for the future efforts
is being guided by CTR's annual
multiyear Program Plan, the first of which was developed this
year.
The United States spent many billions--some say
trillions--of dollars during the Cold War
to deter and defend against the Soviet Union's weapons of mass
destruction. The CTR program
is on a significantly smaller scale, but the payoff is
tremendous. The results, unlike deterrence,
are tangible, observable, and even, in some cases, immediately
gratifying. The program also
is helping to prevent the emergence of new threats as the new
independent states continue to deal
with the uncertainties and instabilities of post-Soviet
sovereignty and independence. It is the
view of the Clinton Administration that continuing this program
of defense by other means will
continue to enhance U.S. national security for the future.
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